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In 1990 and in 1991 Major League Baseball saw a record seven no-hitters thrown in each season. The final one coming on Septemer 11th, 1991, when Atlanta Braves pitchers Kent Mercker, Mark Wohlers and Alejandro Pena combined to shut down the San Diego Padres.
In 2010, there have already been four no-hitters thrown (should be five), including two perfect games (should be three), marking the first time in MLB history that two perfect games have been thrown in the same season.
All of this pitching dominance begs the question: Are we entering a new era in baseball? Has the steriod era reached it's finale? Or is this just a blip on the ever changing landscape of Major League Baseball?
"Shutout Era"
Let's assume that the "Steroid Era" began around 1993, or at least that is when the numbers began to change. That will give us a gauge as we go forward and compare 2010 to the years before.
The "Shutout Era". That's what one person dubbed it. Though it's nothing like it was. In 2009 there were 63 shutouts. In 2010 we are on pace to see 61. In 2007 there were only 43, and 10 teams didn't record even one. For the second half of the decade the number of shutouts thrown were between 63-69 per season. Between 2000 and 2003 the average was 76, with 2002 skewing the numbers a bit with 87.
In 1988 there were 182 shutouts thrown and in 1992 there were 146, and every team recorded at least one.
In 1988 the league average for runs per game allowed by starters was 4.14. This season the average is is 4.46 (down from 4.61 in 2009). That is the lowest it's been since 1992, when it was 4.12. In 1993 that number rose to 4.60. In 2000 the MLB hit a 20 year high of 5.14 runs per game per team.
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| Year |
Complete Games |
120-pitch Outings |
Average Runs Allowed/Start |
| 1988 |
622 |
598 |
4.14 |
| 1989 |
483 |
526 |
4.23 |
| 1990 |
429 |
484 |
4.26 |
| 1991 |
366 |
485 |
4.31 |
| 1992 |
419 |
512 |
4.12 |
| 1993 |
371 |
512 |
4.60 |
| 1994* |
255 |
414 |
4.92 |
| 1995* |
275 |
417 |
4.85 |
| 1996 |
290 |
455 |
5.04 |
| 1997 |
266 |
375 |
4.77 |
| 1998 |
302 |
466 |
4.79 |
| 1999 |
237 |
466 |
5.08 |
| 2000 |
234 |
466 |
5.14 |
| 2001 |
199 |
237 |
4.78 |
| 2002 |
214 |
230 |
4.62 |
| 2003 |
209 |
226 |
4.73 |
| 2004 |
150 |
186 |
4.81 |
| 2005 |
189 |
135 |
4.59 |
| 2006 |
144 |
120 |
4.86 |
| 2007 |
112 |
81 |
4.80 |
| 2008 |
136 |
73 |
4.65 |
| 2009 |
152 |
92 |
4.61 |
| 2010 (pace) |
178 |
128 |
4.47 |
Starters are on pace to record 2,596 Quality Starts, compared to 2,350 in 2009 and 53% of starts have been Quality Starts. The last time that number was over 50% was 2005.
Starters are averaging 6.0 innings per start for the first time since 2004.
But the most interesting number to me, is the average number of pitches thrown per start in 2010. This year the league average is 98 pitches per start, the highest average I could find on record. (Baseball-Reference started recording that stat for the 1988 season) Starters are throwing three more pitches per game than they did in 2009, which doesn't see, like that much, but if over a season of some 4,800 games that amounts to 14,580 more pitches thrown by starting pitchers this season versus last.
61 times already a starter has thrown 120 pitches or more in game. If this pace continues, it will happen roughly 128 times in 2010. In 2009 it happened 92 times and only 73 times in 2008. It would be the most times it has happened since 2005, a year when starting pitching bucked the trend of the decade to that point.
Of course these numbers are no where near where they used to be prior to the "Steroid Era" or even while we were in the midst of it, but they may represent a shift in the baseball landscape.
Youth Rules
2010 represents a youth movement for pitchers, and that is bad news for batters. In 2000, when starters allowed an average of 5.14 runs per game, there were four 20-game winners. Three of them were over 30 (Tom Glavine, David Wells, Darryl Kile). Four players had an ERA under three, two were under 30.
In 1992 when starters held opponents to 4.12 runs per game there were five 20-game winners. Four of them were under 30 (Kevin Brown, Jack McDowell, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine).
In 1988 it was youngsters leading the way. Starters held offenses to 4.14 runs per game and four of the five 20-game winners of that season were under 30. Twenty starters finished the season with an ERA under 3.00, 12 were under 30.
In 2010 there are already six 10-game winners in the majors. The oldest is Adam Wainwright at 28. Twenty pitchers have an ERA under 3.00, 15 of them are under 30.
There is likely multiple reasons why we have seen pitchers have their way thus far in 2010. It could be the end of the "Steroid Era", it could be an influx of youthful talent on the mound. It could be a combination of the two.
Or it could just be a fluke. Only when we are able to go back and examine the numbers will we know if baseball has moved into a new era. |