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It's been a while since I've posted on the Milwaukee Brewers. It's really unfortunate because the Brewers were a great numbers story for a person like me, who happens to love that kind of thing. The team was as advertised, they scored runs with the best in the majors and gave them up with the worst. The result, a .500 team that many predicted.
What does 2010 have in store? Obviously it is way too early to predict completely, but we can get an idea of the types of moves the Brewers will be able to make this off-season or maybe more appropriate the moves the Brewers will not be able to make. We know this: the biggest need is starting pitching.
But where will it come from? Enter the Prince Fielder trade debate.
Prince Fielder will receive $10.5MM in 2010 and is under the control of the Brewers in 2011. After that he will become a free agent. He and his agent Scott Boras will be looking for a hefty payout, one the Brewers most likely will not be able to afford. The price tag will continue to rise if Prince continues to put up numbers like he did in 2009 and the immediate need for pitching is too great for the Brewers to fill all the holes they have.
The issue doesn't soley rest with Fielder's contract. There are some on the roster who could have been used this off-season to snag a few good arms. Unfortunately those players vastly underperformed.
J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart did this team no favors in 2009. The offense was able to produce without them, but their effect is one that will be felt in the off season. Had Hardy produced anywhere near what he did the previous two seasons he would be a great trading chip. Instead he has to be considered a risk, one that won't garner as much on the trading block. The same goes for Hart.
With so few on the roster right now considered to be great trade candidates the Brewers are left to make one huge decision. Do they trade Fielder or don't they?
The Brewers would like to sign Fielder to a long term deal this winter from the latest accounts, but can they afford to have so much payroll invested in just one player? Don't forget that Ryan Braun's contract will continue to rise:
- 08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M
Though Braun looks like a steal from that graph, the rising cost of his contract combined with what Fielder is expected to demand could account for nearly 30-35% of the Brewers payroll if they plan to keep it around $80MM.
Fielder, a Scott Boras client, is signed through 2010 and under team control through 2011. Given the way teams pay for power, Fielder might expect $20MM+ to buy out free agent years. MLB Trade Rumors
Maybe now is not the right time, but the Brewers need to seriously explore the trade option before they rush to sign him to a long term deal.
Again, there are other issues here. Jeff Suppan is set to make $12.5MM in 2010, seriously hampering the Brewers ability to make a big splash in the free agent market. The pitching help is a must for the Brewers in 2010, but the way things stand I can see very few options available to them.
Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus had this to say about the outlook for the Brewers in 2010:
"Right now, it's difficult to see the 2010 Brewers as a team whose aspirations might rise higher than a .500 record, an all-too-familiar spot for an organization that recently went 14 seasons without reaching even that plateau."
What do you think the Brewers should do?
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